Sunday, October 16, 2011

2011-10-14: 2011 NFL Season Week 6

Our neural network predictor was 68% correct straight up this past week but overall our results were not awe inspiring. Two of the games that almost everyone got wrong were the Eagles-Bills and Seahawks-Giants games. In both games the favorite lost and one of the crucial stats was interceptions. Michael Vick of the Eagles threw four interceptions and Eli Manning threw three for the Giants. This is completely out of character for either of the quarterbacks.

So far this year our Support Vector Machine (SVM) predictor has tracked the favorites very closely. With the addition of the line data this year, the line value has driven the output of the SVM. Ignoring the Line values, passing efficiency and turnovers forced by the defense have been two of the most dominant statistics.

Predictions for week 6:

Favorite Spread Underdog Discrete Pagerank
At GB 14.5 STL GB GB
At PIT 9.5 JAX PIT PIT
PHI -0.7 At WAS PHI WAS
At DET 3.4 SF DET SF
At ATL -0.3 CAR ATL ATL
At CIN 3.2 IND CIN CIN
At NYG 4.7 BUF NYG BUF
At BAL 5.6 HOU BAL BAL
At OAK 6.4 CLE OAK OAK
At NE 8.6 DAL NE DAL
NO -4.5 At TB NO NO
At CHI -1.7 MIN CHI MIN
At NYJ 3.8 MIA MIA NYJ
-- Greg Szalkowski

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