Friday, October 7, 2011

2011-10-06: Week 5 2011 NFL Season

Week 4 performance was rather pleasing. Straight up and against the spread were 80% and 75% correct. Buffalo lost with that last minute field goal and as to why Philadelphia fell apart in the second half and lost a 20 point lead has been the subject of numerous commentator's discussions. Hopefully the predictions continue to perform at this level but pessimism indicates that they will regress to the mean. 

Week 5 of the NFL season means the commencement of bye weeks. This week's teams on bye are the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, St. Louis Rams and Washington Redskins.

For comparison purposes we have included one of the better performing algorithms from the past two years. The PageRank algorithm that we modified to indicate strong teams averaged 68% for straight up predictions over the past two years. A more detailed explanation is provided in one of our previous posts.

The predictions for Week 5:

Favorite Line Underdog Discrete PageRank
At IND 6.3 KC IND KC
At MIN 4.6 ARI MIN ARI
At BUF 1 PHI PHI BUF
At HOU 3.4 OAK HOU OAK
At CAR 0.2 NO NO NO
CIN 3.2 At JAC JAC JAC
At PIT 1 TEN PIT TEN
At NYG 9.7 SEA NYG NYG
At SF 2 TB TB SF
At NE 11.3 NYJ NE NYJ
SD 1.3 At DEN SD DEN
GB 2.9 At ATL GB GB
At DET 5.3 CHI CHI DET

-- Greg Szalkowski

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