Saturday, December 17, 2011

2011-12-15: 2011 NFL Season Week 15

So far this year all three of the prediction algorithms are 68% correct straight up. This is better than the predictions of most of the NFL "experts" such as the guys at ESPN. Last year we ended up right below 70% correct as well. Breaking the 70% barrier over the season seems to be rather hard to do as seen on the Prediction Tracker. Looking into the statistics of those games reveals some interesting information. In the majority of those games, the losing team had better box scores but still lost the game. We had thought that incorporating the betting line data this year would have had impact but the accuracy of the straight up predictions is not significantly better than last year.

The season isn't over yet and anything can happen so here are the predictions for week 15.


Favorite Spread Underdog Discrete Pagerank
DAL 7 at TB DAL DAL
at NYG 10 WAS NYG NYG
GB 9 at KC GB GB
NO 9 at MIN NO NO
at CHI 3 SEA CHI SEA
at BUF 2 MIA BUF BUF
at HOU 4 CAR HOU HOU
TEN 4 at IND TEN TEN
CIN 7 at STL CIN CIN
at OAK 4 DET OAK OAK
NE 9 at DEN NE NE
at PHI 3 NYJ PHI NYJ
at ARI 3 CLE ARI ARI
at SD 4 BAL BAL BAL
PIT 2 at SF PIT PIT


-- Greg Szalkowski

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