Thursday, November 24, 2011

2011-11-24: 2011 NFL Season Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving!

I apologize for posting these a little late but I have been cooking food for the past three days. When I was not cooking I was reading papers about modifications to Support Vector Models to get some ideas to improve the accuracy of our predictions.
Adapting Ranking SVM to Document Retrieval concentrated on a modification of the hinge loss function when training the model to increase accuracy. Training a Support Vector Machine in the Primal points out that much literature jumps right to the dual optimization aspect of SVMs and does not pay enough attention to the primal problem. A portion of the paper mentions replacing the hinge loss function with one that is differentiable such as the Huber loss function.

While experimenting with SVM training I observed an interesting data point. Using NFL statistics from 2002 to 2010, one of the training methods assigned the following weights to the teams.
1.1276 Indianapolis Colts
1.1055 New England Patriots
0.5704 Philadelphia Eagles
0.4269 Pittsburgh Steelers
0.3317 Tennessee Titans
0.3184 San Diego Chargers
0.2922 Baltimore Ravens
0.2248 New Orleans Saints
0.1976 Green Bay Packers
0.1718 Jacksonville Jaguars
0.1621 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0.0957 Carolina Panthers
0.0946 Atlanta Falcons
0.0877 New York Jets
0.0704 Chicago Bears
0.0504 New York Giants
-0.0569 Dallas Cowboys
-0.0689 Buffalo Bills
-0.0740 Miami Dolphins
-0.0812 Houston Texans
-0.1085 Denver Broncos
-0.1752 Cincinnati Bengals
-0.2420 Kansas City Chiefs
-0.3457 Cleveland Browns
-0.3631 Minnesota Vikings
-0.3634 Seattle Seahawks
-0.4150 Arizona Cardinals
-0.5037 St. Louis Rams
-0.5121 Oakland Raiders
-0.5633 Washington Redskins
-0.6925 San Francisco 49ers
-0.7623 Detroit Lions

Well it is time for me to break out the whipping cream and make some homemade whip cream for the pies I baked the other day. Here are the picks for this week.

Favorite Spread Underdog Discrete Pagerank
GB 6 at DET GB GB
at DAL 8 MIA DAL DAL
at BAL 3 SF BAL BAL
at STL 5 ARI STL STL
at NYJ 1 BUF NYJ BUF
at CIN 8 CLE CIN CIN
HOU 4 at JAX HOU HOU
CAR 7 at IND CAR IND
at TEN 20 TB TEN TEN
at ATL 11 MIN ATL ATL
at OAK 6 CHI OAK CHI
at SEA 5 WAS SEA SEA
NE 6 at PHI NE PHI
at SD 6 DEN SD DEN
PIT 11 at KC PIT PIT
at NO 3 NYG NO NO


-- Greg Szalkowski

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