I apologize for posting these a little late but I have been cooking food for the past three days. When I was not cooking I was reading papers about modifications to Support Vector Models to get some ideas to improve the accuracy of our predictions.
Adapting Ranking SVM to Document Retrieval concentrated on a modification of the hinge loss function when training the model to increase accuracy. Training a Support Vector Machine in the Primal points out that much literature jumps right to the dual optimization aspect of SVMs and does not pay enough attention to the primal problem. A portion of the paper mentions replacing the hinge loss function with one that is differentiable such as the Huber loss function.
While experimenting with SVM training I observed an interesting data point. Using NFL statistics from 2002 to 2010, one of the training methods assigned the following weights to the teams.
| 1.1276 | Indianapolis Colts | |
| 1.1055 | New England Patriots | |
| 0.5704 | Philadelphia Eagles | |
| 0.4269 | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| 0.3317 | Tennessee Titans | |
| 0.3184 | San Diego Chargers | |
| 0.2922 | Baltimore Ravens | |
| 0.2248 | New Orleans Saints | |
| 0.1976 | Green Bay Packers | |
| 0.1718 | Jacksonville Jaguars | |
| 0.1621 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| 0.0957 | Carolina Panthers | |
| 0.0946 | Atlanta Falcons | |
| 0.0877 | New York Jets | |
| 0.0704 | Chicago Bears | |
| 0.0504 | New York Giants | |
| -0.0569 | Dallas Cowboys | |
| -0.0689 | Buffalo Bills | |
| -0.0740 | Miami Dolphins | |
| -0.0812 | Houston Texans | |
| -0.1085 | Denver Broncos | |
| -0.1752 | Cincinnati Bengals | |
| -0.2420 | Kansas City Chiefs | |
| -0.3457 | Cleveland Browns | |
| -0.3631 | Minnesota Vikings | |
| -0.3634 | Seattle Seahawks | |
| -0.4150 | Arizona Cardinals | |
| -0.5037 | St. Louis Rams | |
| -0.5121 | Oakland Raiders | |
| -0.5633 | Washington Redskins | |
| -0.6925 | San Francisco 49ers | |
| -0.7623 | Detroit Lions |
Well it is time for me to break out the whipping cream and make some homemade whip cream for the pies I baked the other day. Here are the picks for this week.
| Favorite | Spread | Underdog | Discrete | Pagerank |
| GB | 6 | at DET | GB | GB |
| at DAL | 8 | MIA | DAL | DAL |
| at BAL | 3 | SF | BAL | BAL |
| at STL | 5 | ARI | STL | STL |
| at NYJ | 1 | BUF | NYJ | BUF |
| at CIN | 8 | CLE | CIN | CIN |
| HOU | 4 | at JAX | HOU | HOU |
| CAR | 7 | at IND | CAR | IND |
| at TEN | 20 | TB | TEN | TEN |
| at ATL | 11 | MIN | ATL | ATL |
| at OAK | 6 | CHI | OAK | CHI |
| at SEA | 5 | WAS | SEA | SEA |
| NE | 6 | at PHI | NE | PHI |
| at SD | 6 | DEN | SD | DEN |
| PIT | 11 | at KC | PIT | PIT |
| at NO | 3 | NYG | NO | NO |
-- Greg Szalkowski
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