Sunday, October 2, 2011

2011-10-02: 2011 NFL Season Under Way

The 2011 NFL season is underway and we are ready to put some of our improved algorithms to the test. Last year we primarily used box score data for our predictions. This resulted in adequate performance but nothing spectacular.

This year we are increasing the collective intelligence quotient in our algorithm by incorporating betting line data and line movement. The purpose of the betting line is to make the sportsbooks money by splitting the betting population in half. The line will move as a result of betting pressure presented by the betting population. e.g. The favorite team is favored by 5 points. Many bettors may feel that the favorite team is not that good and place bets on the underdog. With an unbalanced wager profile the sportsbook has the potential to lose money so they will move the bet line until the incoming bets are equal on each side. This movement is a form of collective intelligence of the betting population.

Another change this year is that in addition to choosing the winner as a discrete value (winner or loser) we will also predict the line value as a continuous variable. This line value is what we think the line should be. If the favorite team is favored by 5pts and we predict 3pts it may be wise to vote on the underdog. However if the favorite team is favored by 2pts and we predict 7pts, the favorite is the better option.

Without further ado, here is what we are looking at for week 4:
TimeFavoriteLineUnderdogDiscrete
10/2 1:00 ET At Dallas 3.1 Detroit Dallas
10/2 1:00 ET New Orleans 2.5 At Jacksonville New Orleans
10/2 1:00 ET At Philadelphia 8.6 San Francisco Philadelphia
10/2 1:00 ET Washington 2.2 At St. Louis Washington
10/2 1:00 ET Tennessee 4.3 At Cleveland Tennessee
10/2 1:00 ET At Cincinnati 2.3 Buffalo Buffalo
10/2 1:00 ET Minnesota 3.7 At Kansas City Kansas City
10/2 1:00 ET Carolina 0.7 At Chicago Chicago
10/2 1:00 ET At Houston 0.9 Pittsburgh Houston
10/2 4:05 ET Atlanta 2.0 At Seattle Atlanta
10/2 4:05 ET NY Giants 0.3 At Arizona NY Giants
10/2 4:15 ET At San Diego 5.2 Miami San Diego
10/2 4:15 ET At Green Bay 9.5 Denver Green Bay
10/2 4:15 ET New England 4.5 At Oakland New England
10/2 8:25 ET At Baltimore 6.8 NY Jets Baltimore
10/3 8:35 ET At Tampa Bay 1.3 Indianapolis Tampa Bay
--Greg Szalkowski

1 comment:

  1. Hi,
    Looking forward to reading more.
    Thanks Again. Will read on…
    Betting sites

    ReplyDelete